Bloody Shovel 3

We will drown and nobody shall save us

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Hi, it's been a while.

I don't know if anyone was expecting my take on the 2020 US Presidential election. I mean, I called it. I won a few hundred bucks betting that Trump would lose. But of course I'm not happy about it.

I mean, I'm personally cool. Quite cool really. US global power is coming down, and fast. Pressure on China will soften up (not disappear), Europe is starting to show some balls in asserting some independent foreign policy. See the EU-China Investment Treaty, and Germany actually going on with Nord Stream 2.

Most importantly Trump's loss has been a massive, hilarious steal, a farcical fraud where they blatantly took two weeks to slowly cook up the election results and scam 75 million Americans. The whole thing was the epitome of "not even funny". To think that most of the world today is ruled by such a dumb, ham-fisted third world country is infuriating.

I mean, people, please. Elections in civilized countries take 24 hours, tops. Japan is a big country with 125 million people. It's also fairly low tech, and American political influence means that their government is handicapped in many ways. There are no ID cards, for example. That's part of why Japan has been by far the country worst affected by Corona in East Asia. Well, election results in Japan come down the same day or at most the next morning. In Europe they usually confirm in 4 hours after poll closing. The closest thing I can think of is the Thailand elections in 2019 where the junta took a whole 2 months to cook their elections resulting in … the junta staying in power. Of course.

From the perspective of accelerating the demise of the American empire, the election results were almost ideal. Trump lost, so America will be weaker, and Trump lost in such a disagraceful way that America will be weaker still, as infighting diverts much of its strength, and the few people with both a 3-digit IQ and some sense of decency suddenly realize that the state that governs them is but a third world kleptocracy.

So yeah, that's cool, but Trump's defeat also signals that decay has already set in, and it's quite bad already. And even though a Gaul or Dacian patriot might have enjoyed the sight of the Roman Empire falling into constant civil war in the 3rd century, odds were the Gothic invasions that followed ended up with his daughters being raped and his head severed and put on some German's lance. So yeah, not funny.

Not that I expect actual barbarian invasions or anything: even Islam in 2021 is fake and gay. But I do have many American friends: about half the readers of this blog are American. They are all good people and I feel for them. They lost their country in the most disgraceful way, and they're in for a world of pain in short notice.

See the January 6th incident at the Capitol and it's aftermath. Let's first not discuss why it was allowed to happen; whether it was a set up by the government, or just a random event allowed by an incompetent police force. To this day nobody knows why the Reichstag was set on fire in 1933. It doesn't matter, the aftermath was what it was: the Nazis suspended the constitution and installed themselves as a single-party regime.

And that's what's happening in America too: Massive purge on Twitter and Facebook, including the still legal president Donald Trump (!). Trump who is most likely kidnapped. Remember when people were outraged about people "disappearing" in China? Well in Woke America they disappear the fucking president. Why? Because they can.

Twitter is purging, well I'll go to Parler. No chance. Parler has been banned from both (!) Apple and Google's mobile app stores, and they can't even keep the web app online as Amazon Web Services has also kicked them out. And that's not about the Daily Stormer which can be argued is quite extreme. Parler's audience is mostly pretty lame boomer rightwingers. MAGA hats. Well those aren't allowed to gather online anymore.

Now everyone is running around thinking on what to do next. Obviously mainstream platforms aren't hospitable anymore. I've been telling people for a while now to get on Urbit. It's perfectly functional and future-proof. My group address on Urbit is ~docteg-mothep/bloody-shovel. Go to urbit.org for details on how to install the app. The thing with Urbit is that it's not a public forum. It's more of a fancy decentralized Telegram, an instant messaging application with some extra features, but there's only chat groups, more or less private; there's no central node. Well, some people just want Twitter. They want that public forum. They want the central node. They want to fight.

tl;dr: don't fight. You're not gonna win. This links with an older and more important debate. The debate on passivism, which Moldbug introduced long ago, most famously on his commentary on Anders Breivik's incident.

Moldbug's idea is that the Left is the ruling class for a reason; that it reached power through insurrection, and is memetically invulnerable to subversion itself. In fact it's anti-fragile: it grows stronger the more you oppose it. The Left has this never-ending myth of being the underdog, the party of the downtrodden masses who fought against oppression by the evil old white man. So the more that you, old white man (doesn't matter if you're not old or that white, they'll make something up) oppose them, the more it validates their narrative, so the stronger they become, and the more resolute in their backlash.

Let's let aside the actual mechanics of this. How exactly "narrative validation" results in more effective crackdowns is indeed an interesting topic to explore. Let's just assume Moldbug is right, and I think he largely is. Right wing activism really isn't working, and our standing today is incomparably weaker than it was 10 years ago. Whether this was the result of mere Cthulhu swimming left as a law of physics, or the contingent result of Trumpism and other right-wing populism in the world is inmaterial. The shit is getting bad. We're in serious danger of being silenced, fired from our jobs if not outright arrested and jailed just for dissenting with leftist ideology. This is a fact.

So what about Twitter? A lot of people have been making the analogy that US Big Tech censorship is already tantamount to that of China. Well I know something about China so let me share a very relevant experience in Chinese social media during the past decade.

You see, China used to have something quite similar to Twitter. It started as an outright clone, later evolved on its own, quite interesting way. I'm talking of Weibo 微博

Weibo started in 2009, and a year later already had 100 million users. Chinese people are very online, and they very much enjoy the sort of casual, easy dopamine release that comes from microblogging. The Japanese are also avid Twitter users, incidentally, while they never had much of a blogosphere. The language also helps: 150 Chinese characters amount to about triple that in English, so you can say quite a lot.

As usual in China, there's little regulations, and little enforcement of existing regulations, so once Weibo came in it was very free and open. It was the first national forum of public opinion that the Chinese had ever seen. It became huge almost instantly, and of course the most popular part of it was political debate. Everyone and their mother had become a political pundit on Weibo, rather amusingly forgetting they lived in a Communist single-party state. For a couple years people shat on their mayors, their governors, this or that politician, this or that policy, or even the Communist party itself. The American Embassy joined the party with their famous Air Quality reports (at the time air quality in China was really awful and the government refused to release figures), which were promptly retweeted by 300 million boomers with added comments on how much better America was at everything.

Well that situation couldn't last. China was at the moment undergoing a rather big leadership transition (Xi Jinping assumed power in late 2012), so the massive agitation going on at Weibo went on undeterred. But governments, certainly the Chinese government, might be slow, but once they get moving they're unrelenting. In 2013 China decided to crack down on free speech on Weibo, and crack down they did. Famous accounts which had been too edgy politically got visits by police, if not outright arrested. Some were jailed, others had to make public proclamations of loyalty to Socialist values. We're talking of people with tens of millions of followers; China is a big country.

Once the big guys were dealt with pour encourager les autres, the masses were targeted with the beginning stages of what has now become a very sophisticated apparatus of keyword censorship. In Weibo today you just can't search what you want. If there's a rumor that Xi Jinping has farted this morning, the word "fart", "frt", "f4rt" and all permutations that might come up are all promptly banned from searching at any sizable Chinese social media. That's step 1: stop the thing from going viral. Step 2 is deleting already existing mentions of the fart. The thing. That takes time but they have an army of censors (which Weibo was forced to hire at their expense) to take care of that. Step 3 is banning you from tweeting about the fart, but that's a last resort, as it's the most annoying and harder to implement.

Soon enough Weibo just became unusable. Most people up there were on the platform precisely to shitpost on politics, to be edgy, to shit on the government, to be a viral pundit, retweeted by 50 million people at least once in their lives. The new regulations were so oppressive that most people just left. Not to some other similar platform. There had been some at the beginning but they all lagged off and eventually were killed, and the government wouldn't allow a new microblogging site. When Weibo was censored people just left, period. They abandoned the public square. They mostly retreated to WeChat, the national instant messaging app. Some didn't get the message and started being edgy on their public statuses, but most just retreated to private chat groups, where they could be safe from the prying eyes of government. The public square was killed, on purpose, and it never recovered.

Well, not quite. After politics were banned from Weibo, only the most inane stuff was allowed to remain. Mostly celebrities and PR accounts, and the odd clueless boomer. But it's been years now, so plenty of people who need an easy internet exposure but have no intention to talk politics are still on Weibo, many producing quite decent content. A lot of aspiring intellectuals have also learned what is politically correct and what not and have managed to survive. Plenty still get banned mercilessly after some innocent mishap though, as Carl Zha (by all indications a paid propagandist for the government) who lost 10 million followers after dissing some Chinese fighter jet or something. But the platform is lively again, if in a more boring, sanitized way. Half a generation of youngsters have grown up without knowing what legal shitposting was like, and so just don't do it. You can't miss what you've never known.

Now, America isn't China, so there's no guarantee that the situation will evolve in the same way. Maybe Parler or Gab manage to survive the multi-pronged assault by every single part of the tech stack, and they thrive as a hotbed of right wing activism. I don't find it very likely though. I see Twitter becoming a sanitized platform where only government-approved speech is allowed, and most people will be fine with that. I'll stay on Twitter if only to follow a bunch of academic linguists who I find interesting. Also Japanese Twitter has its charm, as Twitter censorship is much, much weaker in exotic languages.

So to recap: I think we should do what the Chinese did, which is retreat to private groups. So go to Telegram, to Urbit if you're smart. I'd avoid Slack but you can run a private Mattermost server which is very similar and actually private. There's a million things you can do. You can also hang out here: this blog is safe and will stay up as long as I can afford it. I expect I'll have more time to write long form this year as Twitter shitposting gets outlawed.

On private groups: so yeah, all the agitation in China retreated to private groups, but note that China only allows one mobile IM application: WeChat. Well there's a few others but people are sheep and everyone is on WeChat. WeChat is not even encrypted or anything, the government can get access to your logs fairly easily. Of course it's not like your local police gets a transcript every night of what you're telling your mistress, there's a long process with a lot of layers to go through, but it can and does happen. So you can imagine that private groups engaging in actually subversive stuff will get in trouble sooner or later.

Well, they did. Since 2019 administrators of WeChat chat groups are legally liable for all speech uttered inside the group. Of course this was framed about drug dealing, cyber-bullying and other illegal behavior; but "spreading disinformation" is illegal behavior too, so you can imagine the chilling effect that had on chat groups in China.

Thankfully in the West we have more of a choice, and it's very unlikely that we ever get to a situation in which even our private chat groups are being surveilled for, say, climate change denial or transphobia. Gotta watch out though, the Left is most certainly going to try. They're preparing a "domestic terrorism" law in the US which promises to be quite Orwellian, and WhatsApp is integrating with Facebook soon. Do yourself a favor and get that shit out of your phone.

So to recap: stay safe. See you on urbit, and expect a big renewal of the blog soon.

38 comments

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  • How do you figure Japan has been worst affected by Corona. From what I have seen, minimal deaths, no lockdowns.

          • OK, that makes sense.

            Do you really think the US empire is in decline? Salo (Fisted by Foucault) sees it as stronger than ever, and thinks we are headed to turbo America. I am stuck in the US (for now), so it is hard to tell when you are in the middle of the storm. I truly hope American hegemony (especially cultural) is on the way out. The US is a lost cause; it is the way it is because it was founded on false principles, specifically human equality. A multipolar world would provide space for less stupid ideologies to take root and flourish.

            • They can't even stage a proper coup in Venezuela, how is the US stronger than ever? China is stronger than ever. US relative strength peaked in 2003, and it's not coming back.

              • Exactly. The demographic from which it drew its strength is demoralised and in decline. We shouldn’t be as afraid of a country with a Latino army that designs planes the quality of the 737 MAX

  • >The closest thing I can think of is the Thailand elections in 2019 where the junta took a whole 2 months to cook their elections resulting in … the junta staying in power. Of course.

    really, you couldn't think of, say, the 2000 US election that Gore conceded and then TOOK BACK the concession, resulting in recounts that went on til December 14th?

    so interesting how none of you can actually think of america

  • How long is booting an urbit planet supposed to take?

    Nothing happens for over 3 hours and I don’t expect anything to happen soon Would really appreciate any help

    See you soon

    • Booting is quite instant. Hit me on Telegram or Keybase and I'll help.

      • Thanks, it seems to be a common issue with M1 macs, I got a free Oracle Server to host a comet for the time being

        • Oracle is an interesting one, it’s the least woke SV company, and offers similar cloud infrastructure to AWS.

          • In case anyone else wants to use an Oracle server for Urbit: https://subject.network/posts/free-cloud-oracle/

        • Oh, it doesn't work with Rosetta?

          There's ARM binaries out there, not sure if this would work with the M1

          https://botter-nidnul.github.io/AArch64_Urbit_Static_Binaries.html

          • I will wait till they fiexed it themselves.

            Thats the answer I got on the Q&A Forum on Urbit:"There is an open ticket for urbit not working on M1 macs. we don't know what the problem is yet but you can track this ticket to be notified when it's fixed https://github.com/urbit/urbit/issues/4257".

  • Thank you. Off topic, but curious if you think the Fed hits the wall any time in the near future (5-10 years), and if so, would you hedge against the dollar w Bitcoin, foreign stocks, or gold?

    • I'm long bitcoin but I'm skeptical of the Fed "hitting the wall" anytime soon.

  • Spandrel you got some typos in your About section, quite a few of them I'd say, quite a few!

  • The comparison of the US (or the West generally) with China is interesting, but I do not share your optimism because China is in a mature state where the people in charge (as far as I can see) are mostly concerned with staying collectively in power and that implies that nonone is rocking the boat. They aren't much interested in ideology and their local holiness sprial is turning rather slowely.

    The US is in a different state. The holiness spiral is turning rather fast and is accelerating. The people in charge just took power by election fraud and are a coalition of untested loyalties. Their individual power is not nearly as secure as that of a Chinese party official. So everyone has a huge incentive to signal fervently his holiness. One way to signal holiness is to crack down hard on those on the right. Worse, anyone not cracking down hard can by attacked as not-sufficiently holy by some underling interested in promotion.

    China is not in a state were mass arrests are to be expected, but the US is. Trump is in similar situation as the Romanov or Ludwig XVI were after they lost power. I expect arrests and executions. We'll soon know whether I am wrong.

    Anyway, consider that BLM was allowed to do a lot of buring and looting. Can't imgaine the Chinese government toleratung anything remotely comparable. There is no extreme left attacting the Chinese government. Biden will have an extreme left attacking him.

    • "Biden will have an extreme left attacking him."

      Did said extreme left attack Obama?

      And remember that Biden is just a placeholder for Kamala.

  • I didn't read any Moldbug for a long time. Best as I could tell the over arching idea he was promoting people talked about was we should have Kings so that one person would have a personal interest in the country. To me this is a non starter. But finally people talked so much about him I decided I would slog through this stuff. Not even a few articles through this exercise I catch him flat out lying and telling people obliquely that he was lying. To me I could actually see the delight in his writing as he slipped in that the whole article idea was a lie. I wish I had saved the article. He said something to the effect that the Jews were never really Commies but later on in the same article he says that both his parents and others were commies. What I see as a general idea is this guy is pure propaganda and disinformation. Not that he doesn't have some flowery gilded nonsense whirred all around his ideas that catch the eyes of the autistic with delight but it's mostly just a lie and if you follow his advice you will lead down a path of destruction.

    I counter the idea that "we just need Kings" very simply. The reason that the US is a mess in a very large part, not all but a BIG part, is two older Supreme Court decisions and one newer. And the idea that we should throw out all the ideas of our civilization because of some mental glitch in the courts which can be changed by a over 50% vote in the House and Senate is stupidity of the highest order. Needless to say the people pushing Kings had zero response to this because..it showed the King was naked.

    The older court rulings said that the Senates in the respective States could not have their Senate based on regional representation just like the US federal government Senate is regional based representation.

    The second was that there could be no test for voting requirements. Like high school diploma or pol tax, etc.

    These two ruling gave vast unimaginable power to urban cities. Without these the left would not collapse but they would have no power. They would not have been able to conduct the present coup or have their proxies burn down cities. It's been commented on several times that Pennsylvania outside of the cities is the same as Alabama. If rioters started burning everything down the regional Senators would have impeached the Governor if necessary to retain order. If they tried to steal the vote they would impeach all the election officials. In fact none of this would ever happen because they would know the outcome before it started. If the recent attempts to ban assault rifles in Virginia were brought before a regional representation based Senate the politicians would have squashed the whole thing immediately and thought those that brought it up mad for trying. Non starter. There are many issues like this. In Oregon they fine farmers for catching water for cows in ponds because they claim they are holding back the rain water from the cities??? Mass stupidity that a lot of would end or at least be curtailed under the old system.

    The third and most recent is saying corporations are people so they can give as much money to politicians as they want. Vast centralization. This too can be changed. I propose making corporations choose to be people or corporations If people they can give money to politicians bit lose any corporate tax breaks and are liable just like people. The opposite they can't give money.

    Without these three there would be much more forced compromise and less centralization which always increases corruption. The guys writing the constitution knew exactly what they were doing and that we have ignored it and papered it over with nonsense is no reason to blame it for our demise.

    "...Moldbug's idea is that the Left is the ruling class for a reason; that it reached power through insurrection, and is memetically invulnerable to subversion itself. In fact it's anti-fragile: it grows stronger the more you oppose it..."

    This idea is completely stupid. The idea that you should do nothing to accomplish something is...well it's just another one of those autistic ideas that somehow delight the neurons of brain addled Whites with no common sense.

    For some reason Whites seem drawn like a moth to flame by big "this is everything" ideas. Libertardinarism, Communism, one and on. They think there will be some sort of miraculous "coming" that will wash away the world. This sort of thinking is actually very handy for technical solutions and some big problems but it sucks for long, slow, entrenched societal problems. The Jews are much more practical and steadily grind away at a country, it's laws, it's society and eventually get what they want. If even 2% of Americans did the same as them it would stop this very soon. Sigh.

    • If it were so easy (just changing a few laws) then you have to explain those very few really easy tweaks never get done, and shit keeps getting worse.

      I'm not a monarchist myself but what we're trying to explain here is not "what laws should be changed" but, "why do we keep getting evil laws enacted". You can shit on Moldbug all you want but unless you have a better explanation you're just yet another internet troll.

      • "If it were so easy (just changing a few laws) then you have to explain those very few really easy tweaks never get done, and shit keeps getting worse.

        ...You can shit on Moldbug all you want but unless you have a better explanation you're just yet another internet troll."

        Point taken and I do have a better explanation. Confirmation bias, boiling frog...combined with a complete lock down publicly on any sort of broad discussion of these problems. People know nothing of this. The circumstances slowly snuck up on them and there is no "reasonable" discussion of how to change things. Sure there's a lot of "we need a civil war" and other sorts of separation bullshit but that's not reasonable and will only play into their hands. It's difficult to discuss ideas that are never allowed to be discussed in the mainstream.

        I tell you what I say Moldbug is a troll that only wants to destroy Whites. Typical Jewsih gas-lighting. His ideas are to "do nothing" and "get a King". My ideas are to,

        1. Help most of California, Oregon, Washington State and New York state rural residents separate from the cities and start new States. The Democrats want to play this game well we can too. That gives us 6 to 8 votes in the Senate our way.

        2. Get the States to resend the Constitution amendment making Senators elected and appoint them from the States to balance the power of the Fed vs States as was originally done in the Constitution. People keep bashing the Constitution and saying it is a failure. It is not. It's been corrupted. Mistakes have been made but these things can be changed while following the guide of our ancestors. The guys who wrote it studied all the various forms of government and picked most of the best structures that they could given the realities on the ground. There is no perfect government but the US Constitution was damn close and can be changed to fit the times.

        3. With extra Senators we could force two "kill shots" against the deep State and the Democrats. Resend the courts ruling that the Senators in the States be based on population instead of regional as the States were originally. This one action is like a super amplifier that will crush the large city mass NPC vote even if they do try to steal votes.

        4. Resend the court decision that there can be no qualifications for voting. I personally would make the law such that at least 50% or better of the populous be "eligible" to vote, not that they vote, only that they are legally able too. This makes the vote the broad will of the people but leaves out the riff raff. I would also enact penalties if this eligibility falls below the stated amount to stifle the Oligarchs making it impossible for the broad majority to vote. In that instance the vote should be thrown open to everyone in the next election and I mean everyone. I think this would assure that it wouldn't happen because it would ruin the Oligarchs and be their worst nightmare.

        5. Force the States into a verifiable voting system. If they choose not to do so fine we will not count their Representatives votes.

        6. I would add a Constitutional amendment to keep the courts in line. I don't think the founders put enough restrictions on judges. If some number say 60% of the State legislatures vote to do so, leave out the governors as they can be bribed, then they can impeach any Federal judge. So if the judges encroach on the States rights too hard if 60% of the States legislatures vote to impeach then the judge named is gone. It shouldn't be easy to get rid of judges but the effect of a blade over someone's neck, even if it's tied securely, tends to focus the necks owner on the circumstances that would allow it to be released.

        7. One last Constitutional amendment which I can't see how we could get but it would be something to work towards. No lawyers should be in any elected office anywhere in the USA. None. Nor anyone who had ever been a lawyer.

        These things would totally bring back balance to the whole of the government. We have essentially a lock on many of these States functions and have the votes to do the first step and regain Senators appointed by the States. The rest could follow.

        With these then the forces the left depend on for power would be scattered, dissipated and rendered impotent.

        Now which one these set of ideas would favor the people of the USA better, Moldbugs or mine?

      • To make my intentions clear, some of the ideas and paths I wish to take are to avoid a serious mass bloodletting civil war in the US. I think it could happen. I hope it won't. No one will be satisfied with the outcome I fear but the Jews and even they will regret it in the end. If something is not done I expect the odds of this to increase greatly.

      • Is it possible to "explain [why] those very few really easy tweaks never get done" by just using that 4-panel meme that encapsulates the 4th Turning idea?

        https://duckduckgo.com/?q=hard+men+create+good+times&iax=images&ia=images

    • > This idea is completely stupid. The idea that you should do nothing to accomplish something is...well it's just another one of those autistic ideas that somehow delight the neurons of brain addled Whites with no common sense.

      The main implication if you "do anything" under the current climate, you'll get binned or outright murdered. Name at least one successful politician/ideologue/freedom fighter who was also imprisoned. It's kinda hard to achieve power/topple current regime when you are dead or gayraped in prison.

      • Issue is we can't beat them at power-seizing because they min-max for it, but they can't weild power effectively for long because min-maxing for power siezing necessarily limits the mental/personality traits needed to weild it effectively.

        We know how to weild power best, but that means nothing if we never have it (because we refuse to learn how to sieze it).

        Lefty whiplashing between hysteria, gloating, and promises of crushing revenge are somehow related to their awareness of the differences between our skillsets. Im sure Moldbug has written a short 200,000 word blog post on it, but I am a simple illiterate man-fish hybrid too busy slamming fish-girl puss to bother.

        Our options are:

        * become italians. be illegible to the state, extract everything we can and give nothing back until the state cant easily oppress us anymore.

        * leave and help set up bio-Stalinist regimes in other nations that accept our bretheran and work to thumb their noses at the GAE.

        * infiltrate the woke and lead purity spirals against their own any/every way we can.

        * improve drone and 3d printing tech to the point where naval force projection, maritime shipping, and occupation of hostile nations is impossible.

        "direct action" as antifa defines it is impossible for us.

  • Alright, I'm on Urbit now as well.

    Looks pretty interesting, plenty to take in as far as understanding their system is concerned.

    Boilerplate aside, the concept is rather compelling.

    Will filter over your way before too long...

  • "Europe is starting to show some balls..."

    Who do you refer to?

    I don't see many EU politicians fit that description. They seem to me like navel-gazing arch-bureaucrats driven only by Cathedral party lines and their own bureaucrat drives. Salvini looked promising the same way Trump did in 2016, did he manage to do something? Orbán is still holding on, which is cool.

    "...in asserting some independent foreign policy. See the EU-China Investment Treaty, and Germany actually going on with Nord Stream 2."

    This sounds more like China and Russia stealing USG's bitches, than said bitches sneaking off on their own.

    Not big on geopolitics so I might be wrong.

  • Wanna rethink this

    "it's very unlikely that we ever get to a situation in which even our private chat groups are being surveilled for, say, climate change denial or transphobia."

    NYT: US Government Needs a Reality Czar to Censor Badthink

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/nyt-us-government-needs-reality-czar-to-censor-badthink/

    Three weeks in and it's already a priority.

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